The Defection Epidemic: Sam Amadi Warns of a Dying Federalism

The Nigerian political landscape is currently witnessing a tectonic shift as state governors abandon opposition platforms in a coordinated rush toward the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This wave of defections has sparked a fierce debate over the survival of the nation’s democratic structures, with prominent intellectuals now sounding the alarm. Among the most vocal critics is Dr. Sam Amadi, the Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, who contends that this trend is effectively dismantling the logic of the Nigerian federation.

Speaking during a recent television appearance, Amadi offered a sobering diagnosis of the country’s political health. The former chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) argued that the mass migration to the “party at the center” is not merely a political maneuver but a symptom of a deeper, systemic failure. To Amadi, the essence of statehood in a federal system is the ability of sub-national units to harness their own resources and chart independent paths to prosperity. When governors flee to the ruling party to seek “alignment,” they are essentially admitting that their states cannot survive without the umbilical cord of the federal government.

The statistics are increasingly lopsided. High-profile defections have recently rocked states that were once strongholds of the opposition, including Delta, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, and Kano. From the oil-rich creeks of the South-South to the commercial hubs of the North, the story is the same: governors are trading their ideological independence for the perceived safety and patronage of the APC. Amadi suggests that this rush reflects an economic desperation that has overtaken the political class.

“The idea of having a state is being able to harness your resources and development,” Amadi noted. He argued that Nigeria’s current trajectory suggests a regression into a centralized system of governance that the country supposedly moved away from decades ago. By congregating under a single political umbrella, the governors are inadvertently creating a de facto one-party state, where regional diversity and healthy competition between sub-nationals are sacrificed on the altar of political convenience.

The core of the problem, according to the political economist, is that Nigeria has failed to get its “economics right.” Because states have remained largely unproductive and dependent on monthly allocations from the federal purse, governors feel they have no choice but to be in the “good books” of the president. This dependency creates a master-servant relationship that mocks the concept of “co-equal” tiers of government. Amadi’s critique suggests that until states become economically viable entities capable of generating their own wealth, federalism will remain a legal fiction.

This centralization of power is particularly dangerous in a country as diverse as Nigeria. Federalism was originally designed to provide a buffer against ethnic and regional tensions by allowing different parts of the country to govern themselves according to their unique needs. If every state becomes an extension of the central ruling party, that buffer disappears. Amadi questioned whether the nation is drifting back to a command-and-control style of leadership that stifles local innovation and prioritizes loyalty over performance.

While Nigeria may have seen periods of political growth, Amadi believes the failure to build a functional economic framework has left the door open for this kind of “politics of the stomach” at the highest levels. The optics of these defections are often presented as “bringing the state into the mainstream,” but Amadi warns that the “mainstream” is becoming a whirlpool that is sucking the life out of democratic plurality.

The recent addition of Taraba to the list of defecting states highlights the geographic breadth of this trend. It suggests that no region is immune to the pressure to conform. For the opposition, these departures are devastating, leaving them with fewer platforms to challenge federal policies or offer alternative visions for the country. Amadi’s intervention serves as a reminder that a one-sided political field rarely produces the kind of accountability needed for genuine national development.

As the 2027 political cycle begins to loom on the horizon, the consolidation of power within the APC is likely to intensify. The question remains whether the remaining opposition governors will hold their ground or if the “center” will eventually consume the entire map. Amadi’s warning is clear: a federation without independent sub-nationals is a federation in name only.

The survival of the Nigerian experiment may depend on moving away from this culture of alignment and toward a culture of production. For now, the sight of governors jumping ship suggests that the struggle for true federalism is being lost to the immediate lure of central power. Amadi’s blunt assessment challenges the political class to rethink whether they are building a nation or simply a massive, centralized bureaucracy.